Dubai’s property market is displaying weakness approximately three weeks into the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. Transaction volumes have declined substantially, with transaction volumes in the UAE falling 37% year-on-year in the first 12 days of March, and 49% month-on-month, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.
February’s transaction values were twice those recorded so far in March — a steeper decline than observed during the 2024 Dubai floods or previous Iran-Israeli tensions last June.
Some properties now carry discounts of 12–15%, though the median transacted price has only decreased 3% annually. This suggests sellers are maintaining asking prices rather than engaging in panic selling.
Developer shares have declined notably. Emaar Properties, the developer behind Burj Khalifa, is down more than 26% on the Dubai bourse since the conflict began, reflecting institutional reassessment of future unit delivery through 2028.
Industry professionals maintain that fundamentals remain intact, with real estate loan exposure sitting at a manageable 14% of total UAE bank loans. Should regional de-escalation occur within the quarter, activity could recover. However, prolonged conflict could trigger price corrections reaching 15%.
